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RevPAR will reach its cyclical low point in the third quarterof 2009, closingb the escalating trend of declines in RevPAR that beganm in the third quarter of according to . "The good news is that the bottomk of the current cycle forthe U.S. hoteol industry is soon to arrive,” said R. Mark president of PKF Hospitality Research, in a news “The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakest year on record for the domestixlodging industry, and 2010 is going to be disappointing as If you are wondering when we'll startt to see actual growth in RevPAR, then you'll have to wait until 2011.
However, if you want to know when the operatiny environment is going to get a littleless that's happening right now." Lodginf forecasts presented in the June 2009 edition of Hotel Horizonsa are based on Smith Travel Research hotel performance data through March 2009 and Moody's Economy.com'xs May 2009 economic forecast for the Given the correlation between employment and lodging the new expectation is for RevPAR to declinee 17.5 percent in 2009, followe d by another 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-year quarterly declines in the demandfor U.S. lodging accommodations startes in the first quartedr of 2008 and peaked at negative 8 perceny in the first quarterof 2009.
The June 2009 editiohn of Hotel Horizons forecasts demand to declinr each of the remaining quarterof 2009, but at a diminishing pace. The projectec quarterly declines in demand for the remaindedr of 2009 averagejust 4.7 percent. Beyonr 2009, the forecast callsw for average annual increases in demaneof 3.2 percent for the next four well above the 1.9 percent long-term average. But given the forecastt 17.5 percent decline in RevPAR for allof PKF-HR is projecting total hotel revenuews to decrease 16 percent for the In 2011 and 2012, PKF-HR forecastz that RevPAR will increase on an average annuaol basis of 9.2 percent, while profits will rise at a 17.8 percentg pace.
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